In a notable revision, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has scaled back its projections to expand green hydrogen production across the globe, except China, The Hydrogen Insight reports.

The agency’s latest report, “Renewables 2023: Analysis and forecast to 2028,” forecasts a more conservative estimate of 45GW of new renewable energy capacity dedicated to green hydrogen production by the end of 2028.

This represents a significant reduction from last year’s projection of 50GW by the end of 2027. The report suggests that only 7% of the previously announced renewable hydrogen projects may materialize.

Even in an optimistic scenario, factoring in additional government support, the IEA anticipates 85GW by the end of 2028, falling short of the 90GW projected in the previous year’s report for 2027.

“We have adjusted our projections downward for all geographic areas except China,” states the IEA in its latest report, foreseeing that China will contribute to 70% of new installations in the upcoming year.

The report cites the sluggish progress in translating planned projects into final investment decisions as a primary factor, attributing this delay to a scarcity of off-takers and the influence of elevated prices on production expenses.

The evolution of an international hydrogen market stands out as a pivotal uncertainty impacting the forecast, especially for regions with constrained domestic demand for hydrogen.

The subdued outlook underscores potential challenges in achieving ambitious renewable hydrogen targets globally.