Following his victory in the 2024 election, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump placed food prices at the top of his agenda, stating in December that Americans are “going to be affording their groceries very soon,” and that the high prices would be a relic of the past.

Trump, who repeatedly discussed rising grocery and egg prices during his presidential campaign claimed following his election there would be a “drop in wholesale prices and no egg farms having bird flu outbreaks.”

The reality has been different, as bird flu rages and egg prices continue to soar, but that has not stopped Trump from claiming otherwise.

While taking questions from press at the oval office, the day after Easter, Trump stated “Yesterday we had 48,000 people at the easter hunt … at the White House, and we had all eggs. And as you know, the cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office. They are pretty much normally priced now.”

Factual discrepancies

The White House’s proclamation of victory in the war on egg prices has not held up to scrutiny. Following Trump’s statements, several publications from CNN to X’s community notes, were quick to point out the inaccuracies of Trump’s claim: Average egg prices skyrocketed across the U.S., rising to a record high of well over $6 per dozen eggs.

So, how can Trump claim that prices have declined? As reported by CNN, it seems the discrepancy in prices is twofold, differing focal points and an exaggerated victory.

A decline in egg prices did in fact occur, however this was at the wholesale level. Since Trump’s first week in January until April, wholesale prices saw a roughly 50% decline from $6.55 to $3.13. Not quite the 90% decline Trump boasted of, but a decline all the same.

Wholesale prices, as purchased by food service providers, retailers, and distributors, typically consists of 15 dozen eggs, far more than the amount consumers purchase. Your average shopper is not buying eggs at wholesale quantities, and so the numbers at the consumer level tell a different story.

The average price for a dozen grade A large eggs across the U.S. has been on the rise for the past two decades. In January of 2000, per an AP report, the average cost sat at around $0.98 and rose steadily ever since. Five-year pricing intervals show the price reaching $1.21 on January of 2005, around $1.80 on January of 2010, $2.11 on January of 2015, around $1.60 on January of 2020, and $4.95 as of January 2025.

Bird flu cuts egg supply

Perhaps the main driver of the spike in prices is the ongoing bird flu epidemic. Per a Reuters report, the U.S. has “traditionally maintained about one laying hen per person to meet consumer demand.” With a population of about 340 million people, the current supply of 304 million laying hens producing table eggs is inadequate to satisfy the demand of the country’s population.

That figure comes from January of 2025 and has been in decline ever since. In February the U.S. laying-hen population was 293 million, and by March it dropped to about 285 million, according to PBS.

This decline continues to be exacerbated by the ongoing epidemic which, since its onset, has seen the death of roughly 160 million chickens, turkeys, and other commercial fowl—either killed by the virus itself or by culling, a measure taken to contain the outbreak.

The decrease in egg supply has been met with mixed results on the demand side. “Consumers got tired of paying higher prices, so demand fell, which means egg prices should decline,” CNN argued. However, as April approached and American families prepared for Easter holiday celebrations, the demand for eggs rose.

The decrease in supply, and subsequent higher prices, have led consumers to use plastic eggs or potatoes to color for Easter.

International fowl not immune

Europe has been suffering from its own outbreaks of bird flu, the German-based news publication DW reported, with Poland, Hungary, and France among the worst affected and Portugal reporting an outbreak on a poultry farm near Lisbon in January.

Egg prices in the European Union saw an average of a 6.7% increase prices between March of 2024 vs 2025, according to a euronews report. “The Czech Republic experienced the highest annual inflation rate for eggs at 46%, followed by Slovakia at 29.8% and Hungary at 26.1%,” the report said.

That same month, DW reported, “over the past few weeks, U.S. officials have contacted several European countries for help to alleviate the shortage.” But Europe had its own shortages to deal with.

In February, CNN reported that Turkey planned to export over 400 million eggs to the United States this year, the highest recorded figure. According to Reuters, “Turkey would expand its egg exports to the U.S., having agreed to send an extra 15,000 tons of eggs under a temporary deal with Washington.”

Ironically, the relief that Trump is seeking for high egg prices may end up coming from imports, at a time when Trump is adding to the price of many imports through tariffs.